Morning Briefing 19 Sep: Euro Drops to Lowest in 6 Months

DCFX · 19 Sep 5.3K Views
US Homebuilder Sentiment Lowest in 5 Months

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell to 45 in September, the lowest in five months and below estimates of 50. High mortgage interest rates are impacting builder confidence and consumer demand, as more buyers choose to delay home purchases until term rates long moves lower.


The euro fell below $1.068, its lowest in six months, as the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the 10th consecutive time and indicated it would halt its monetary tightening. ECB policymakers said that current borrowing costs have reached a point where, if maintained for a sufficient duration, they would significantly contribute to bringing inflation back to target levels. According to the ECB's economic projections, average inflation in the Euro Area is expected to be 5.6% (vs. 5.4% in the June projection) in 2023, 3.2% (vs. 3.0%) in 2024, and 2.1 % (vs. 2.2%) in 2025.

Trend   ↓

Support : 1.06751

Resistance : 1.07354


The British pound depreciated towards $1.24 in September, its lowest in four months, pressured by further strength in the dollar as new data consolidated evidence of resilience in the US economy and added leeway for the Fed to leave borrowing costs at restrictive levels. On the contrary, domestic data and falling mortgage demand limit the scope for the BoE to remain hawkish.

Trend   ↓

Support : 1.23234

Resistance : 1.24587


The Japanese yen weakened again past 147 per dollar, sliding back to ten-month lows as investors reassessed the Bank of Japan's monetary policy outlook in light of Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent remarks. Ueda recently stated that the central bank could end its negative interest rate policy when the 2% inflation target is achieved. However, analysts argued that his statement was conditional and did not commit to policy normalization.

Trend  ↓

Support :  146.694

Resistance :   148.243


Gold rose toward $1,930 an ounce on Monday, rising for the third straight session as investors prepared for key central bank events. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday, with investors focused on the inflation outlook and next policy steps. Traders also looked ahead to S&P Global PMI figures in the US and several housing indicators.

Trend   ↑

Support : 1924.76

Resistance : 1948.67


WTI crude oil futures rose above $91 a barrel on Monday, hovering at their highest level in more than ten months on expectations of a widening market deficit in the fourth quarter due to extended supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as hopes of a demand recovery in China. OPEC, the US Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency all expect larger market deficits in the next quarter as major producers keep global supply tight, with global oil demand growing.

Trend   ↑

Support : 88.35

Resistance : 92.45

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