Dollar Moves Down before Important PCE Data
Predictions for the USD will continue to decline quite high towards the end of the year. This influence shows that from several countries that have not used the USD or Dedollarization, as well as geopolitical influences that tend to worsen and are related to the US so that the level of confidence in the USD begins to continue to weaken and this influence will have an impact on the opposite pair to the USD will experience a significant increase. Some Federal Reserve officials have tried to rein in expectations for a number of US interest rate cuts in 2024, after last week's dovish Fed policy setting meeting. However, 10-year US Treasury yields hit a seven-month low of 3.847% earlier, dragging the dollar lower with traders predicting that a rate cut could happen as soon as March. There are a number of data releases due on Thursday, including weekly jobless claims data, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing Index data, and most importantly quarterly gross domestic product growth data. However, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures/PCE price index, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, will be released on Friday, and could indicate whether inflation has slowed enough for the Fed to start easing policy next year. On trend, the USD index is still showing a high decline and there is no sign of a significant reversal.
Calendar:
XAUUSD
Technical Analysis
Bullish Continuation / Up
Demand Level: 2031.09 - 2037.01
Predictions for gold today tend to go up and in accordance with predictions on the previous day stating that prices are still rising so this needs to be considered, although yesterday's news release "US GDP Growth Rate" showed a strengthening indeed, but the strengthening did not last long because the price turned out to tend to still show an increase which is a picture of some investors who tend to choose and glance at Gold compared to the USD where the level of trust has tended to be low due to the Middle East political conflict and the support of the Russia - Ukrina conflict earlier this year as well as US debt which tends to increase even reaching the limit so that investors tend to leave the USD for the time being. The trend also still shows an upward pattern and there is no sign of price changes in general.
OIL
Technical Analysis
Bullish Continuation / Up
Demand level: 73.41 - 74.01
Predictions for Oil are still in the tendency of continuing the increase, indeed on the previous day it tended to decline slightly at the price of around 73.80 but for today it has the potential to continue the increase. It looks like this will still tend to make prices high so that with this oil demand tends to be high and prices are predicted to tend to rise in the long term. In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rose after a Norwegian-flagged ship was attacked by the Houthi military group in the Red Sea earlier this week. Greece on Wednesday warned ships crossing the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden to avoid Yemeni waters because quite a number of ships from Europe and Britain tend to pass through the Red Sea with the aim of shortening the water route, but were blocked against these shipments if they wanted to be safe, they had to go through the African route first and that took time and costs were quite high and expensive so this would have an impact on the increase in oil, so Greek ship companies control about 20 percent of global commercial ship carrying capacity. This analysis prediction is supported by candlestick analysis and trend analysis.
Technical Analysis
Bearish Continuation / Down
Supply Level: 143.090 - 142.910
Predictions for the USD for now are predicted to experience a continuous decline even though the previous day had dropped but mixed with a slight correction, but for the current situation it will tend to decline quite high. It is still the same as the prediction on the previous day which explains that the decline will occur higher due to the impact of Dedollarization and US yields which tend to be lower as well so this needs to be considered. USD was down 0.3% at 143.16, where the yen recovered from sharp losses earlier in the week after the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-dovish policy. This week's focus is Japan's consumer price index inflation which will be present today and for today there will be news of the "Core PCE Price Index" which is predicted to make the USD weaker because based on the data it tends to be the same and most likely will be flat. This prediction and analysis is supported by candlestick analysis and trendline analysis.
Technical Analysis
Bullish Continuation / Up
Demand Level: 1.26600 - 1.26800
Predictions for the Pounds Sterling for today tend to increase and there will be a decline against the USD. This tends to continue the strengthening that was previously down a little but has the potential to continue to rise. Even so, it should be noted that the price in general still shows an increase against the Pounds Sterling it seems that the current situation will continue to increase. For today there will be news about the Pounds Sterling, namely "Retail Sales" which is predicted to make the Pounds Sterling tend to strengthen so that this needs to be considered and is an opportunity for investors who like the Pounds Sterling. This analysis prediction is supported by candlestick analysis and trend analysis.
NIKKEI
Technical Analysis
Bearish / Downward Reversal
Supply Level: 33093 - 33425
Predictions for Nikkei are predicted in accordance with the analysis which from the previous few days that shows Nikkei will potentially decline due to resistance and candlesticks as well. This could indicate that the strengthening sign of the Yen will tend to be long and prolonged so that this makes the Nikkei Indkes will also decline for a long time and this needs to be considered. The effect of this Nikkei going down is also because some investors tend to want to leave this index because the price has reached its highest price again so investors tend to leave the yen for a while until the next time they look for or get another opportunity in this Nikkei index, the trend also shows signs of changing the direction of the trend from bullish to bearish and support from candlesticks as well so this is still an opportunity for some investors to sell from the Nikkei index.
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